CLE Course Review

Dow Turns Moderately Bearish

Dow Turns Moderately Bearish

In trading yesterday, only the tech-laden NASDAQ avoided the selling, edging up 3.04 points to hold at above 2300 and its five-year high. As I have said, breadth in the NASDAQ has improved.

The DOW was the big loser on the day giving up 65 points or 0.58% to fall to 11,150.70, which is just below its key short-term 20-day moving average, a warning. The S&P 500 lost 2.64 points. The near-tech technical signals for these two indices are the weakest of the four indices.

Small-cap stocks continue to hold after breaking to a new historical high on Wednesday. The Russell 2000 fell 1.58 points or 0.21%, which is positive given the extreme overbought condition. The barometer of small-cap performance is up a healthy 13.28% this year. While impressive, I question whether the index can maintain this rate of appreciation.

In commodities news, the May light crude futures on the NYMEX broke above $67 a barrel on Thursday. The near-term signals look relatively bullish and the minor trend is positive. The breakout materialized after a Rectangle formation at between $61 and $65.50. Oil could move towards the $70 level, last encountered in February, if it can hold at $65.50-$66. But watch for some selling pressure as the contract is overbought. High oil prices will pressure stocks.

Trading in the NASDAQ has come in at over 2 billion shares in the last three straight sessions. Trading volume on the NASDAQ came in at about 2.22 billion shares yesterday, above its 5-day and 10-day moving averages of 2.11 billion and 2.18 billion shares, respectively. The strong volume in yesterdays marginal up day is encouraging following a strong volume breakout on Wednesday.

On the NYSE, daily trading picked up yesterday. Trading on Thursday was 1.61 billion shares, above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages of 1.55 billion and 1.55 billion shares, respectively.

The near-term technical picture for the NASDAQ is bullish but is showing some potential weakening. The Relative Strength remains relatively strong, suggesting more gains if it can hold. The index is holding at above its previous pivot point of 2332.95 and its five-year high of 2333, a bullish sign. The index is trading at above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages of 2297 and 22854, respectively.

The MACD continues to flash a moderate buy signal. The MACD trend is negative but has reversed course. The upside break was bullish after largely trading in an intermediate term sideways channel. Now we will see if the NASDAQ can hold and edge higher towards 2366 and 2387. The index is now marginally overbought so watch for some potential selling pressure.

On the blue chip side, the near-term signs for the DOW weakened further and are now moderately bearish. The intermediate trend is bullish but yesterdays break below its 20-day moving average of 11,156 is a warning and could signal further deterioration if it cannot hold. The Relative Strength also fell to below neutral, showing a potential lost of momentum. The MACD turned bearish yesterday and is flashing a moderate sell.

The key for the DOW is whether it can hold at around its 20-day moving average. Indications suggest further weakness, albeit the selling has created a near oversold condition. Failure to hold could drive the DOW down to 11,092, 11,077 and 50-day moving average at 11,016. A rebound could see the DOW move back to above its 20-day moving average and a pivot point at 11,234.

The Bollinger Bands on the DOW are trending upwards and widening, indicating increased volatility in the near-term. Watch this.

On the S&P 500, the near-term picture is neutral to moderately bullish. The Relative Strength weakened yesterday and is marginally above neutral. The index is trading at above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages of 1,294 and 1,283, respectively. The MACD is neutral.

Near-term targets are 1,310 and 1,333. The index needs to hold at its 20-day moving average or we could see weakness.

On the small-cap side, the Russell 2000 is bullish. The Relative Strength is relatively strong but watch if it can hold. The recent break above the previous pivot point of 745.18 was positive. The trend is positive with higher highs and lower lows.

Watch if the Russell 2000 can trend higher but given the buying, the index is extremely overbought. The MACD is positive and appears to have reversed the downtrend.

The next area of resistance for the Russell 2000 is 772 and 803.

The advance-decline line on the NYSE (0.77:1) continues to be mixed, coming in at below 1.0 yesterday. The NASDAQ (1.004:1) managed to hold at above 1.0. The daily A/D reading on the NASDAQ has been above 1.0 in 7 of the last 10 sessions. The 5-day moving average for both the NYSE (1.27:1) and NASDAQ (1.42:1) remains above 1.0.

The market is continuing to show bullish sentiment. The new high new low ratio (NHNL) for the NASDAQ came in at above the bullish 70% level for the 14th straight day, coming in at 89.35%. The NHNL ratio on the NYSE (82.69%) has been above 70% for the last 15 straight sessions.

The current technical picture for the four key indexes is as follows:

NASDAQ: Bullish; Relative Strength: Above Neutral; Marginally Overbought

DOW: Moderately Bearish; Relative Strength: Below Neutral; Near Oversold

S&P 500: Neutral to Moderately Bullish; Relative Strength: Neutral

RUSSELL 2000: Bullish; Relative Strength: Relatively Strong; Extremely Overbought

Here is what to watch for on Friday.

The DOW faces more selling pressure as its near-term technical picture is moderately bearish and the weakest of the four indices. Watch for potential support as the index is nearly oversold.

Tech and small-cap stocks continue to show the strongest technical strength but watch the extremely overbought condition in the Russell 2000 and marginally oversold condition on the NASDAQ.

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Hedge Funds 101 : Understanding Current Concepts and Lingo

Hedge Funds 101 : Understanding Current Concepts and Lingo

What exactly is a “hedge fund ” ?

In essence , it is a managed pool of capital for institutions or wealthy individual investors that employees one of various trading strategies in equities, bonds or derivatives , attempting to gain from market inefficiencies and , to some extent hedge underlying risks.

Hedge funds are often loosely regulated and usually are much less transparent than traditional investment funds. That helps them to trade more stealthily. Funds typically have minimum investments periods, and charge fees based both on funds under management and on performance.

Many experts contend it is a mistake to talk about hedge funds as an asset class : rather the industry embraces a collection of trading strategies. The appropriate choice of hedging strategy for a particular investor depends largely on its existing portfolio; if for example , it is heavily invested in equities, it might seek a hedging strategy to offset equity risk. Because of this, discussion of relative returns between hedge-funds strategies can be misleading.

Hedge funds use investment techniques that are usually forbidden for more traditional funds , including “short selling: stock – that is borrowing shares to sell them in the hope of buying them back later at a lower price – and using big leverage through borrowing.

The favored strategies tend to change. It has been said that the hedge-fund industry was equity driven but that now in 2006 there is less long/short. It seems to be a much more diverse picture in 2006 with less of a concentrated exposure format.

Some of the most common strategies include

Convertible arbitrage : This involves going long in the convertible securities ( that is usually shares or bonds) that are exchangeable for a certain number of another form ( usually common shares) at a preset price , and simultaneously shorting the underlying equities. This strategy previously was very effective and was a standard. However this type of action seems to have lost effectiveness and seems to have lost favor in the crowd.

Emerging markets : Investing in securities of companies in the ever emerging economies through the purchase of sovereign or corporate debt and /or shares.

Fund of funds : Inviting in a “basket” of hedge funds. Some funds of funds focus on single strategies and other pursue multiple strategies These funds have an added layer of fees.

Global Macro – Investing in shifts between global economies , often using derivatives to speculate on interest-rate or currency moves.

Market neutral : Typically , equal amounts of capital are invested long and short in the market, attempting to neutralize risk by purchasing undervalued securities and taking short positions in overvalued securities.

As you can see the terminology in dealing with “hedge funds ” is both ever-changing and confusing.

You should be fluent in both the language and the concepts in order that you can discuss and make intelligent rather than confused choices in your investments.

Remember it is you and not your broker / adviser who will pay the ultimate costs of negligent comprehension and investment planning.

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