CLE Course Review

Blue chip stocks – not a poker game

Blue chip stocks – not a poker game

Investing in conservative blue chip stocks may not have the allure of a hot high-tech investment, but it can be highly rewarding nonetheless, as good quality stocks have outperformed other investment classes over the long term.

Historically, investing in stocks has generated a return, over time, of between 11 and 15 percent annually depending how aggressive you are. Stocks outperform other investments since they incur more risk.

Stock investors are at the bottom of the corporate “food chain.” First, companies have to pay their employees and suppliers. Then they pay their bondholders. After this come the preferred shareholders. Companies have an obligation to pay all these stakeholders first, and if there is money leftover it is paid to the stockholders through dividends or retained earnings. Sometimes there is a lot of money left over for stockholders, and in other cases there isn’t. Thus, investing in stocks is risky because investors never know exactly what they are going to receive for their investment.

What are the attractions of blue chip stocks?

1. Great long-term rates of return.
2. Unlike mutual funds, another relatively safe, long term investment category, there are no ongoing fees.
3. You become a owner of a company.So much for the benefits – what about the risks?
1. Some investors can’t tolerate both the risk associated with investing in the stock market and the risk associated with investing in one company. Not all blue chips are created equal.
2. If you don’t have the time and skill to identify a good quality company at a fair price don’t invest directly. Rather, you should consider a good mutual fund. Selecting a blue chip company is only part of the battle – determining the appropriate price is the other.

Theoretically, the value of a stock is the present value of all future cash flows discounted at the appropriate discount rate. However, like most theoretical answers, this doesn’t fully explain reality. In reality supply and demand for a stock sets the stock’s daily price, and demand for a stock will increase or decrease depending of the outlook for a company. Thus, stock prices are driven by investor expectations for a company, the more favorable the expectations the better the stock price.

In short, the stock market is a voting machine and much of the time it is voting based on investors’ fear or greed, not on their rational assessments of value. Stock prices can swing widely in the short-term but they eventually converge to their intrinsic value over the long-term.Investors should look at good companies with great expectations that are not yet imbedded in the price of a stock.

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commodity trading brokerage

Active Stock Market Timing

Active Stock Market Timing

Copyright 2006 Equitrend, Inc.

Much has been written about the virtues and dangers of active stock market trading, or market timing.

Most of the pundits and so called “experts” will tell you that stock market timing doesn’t work, that it’s dangerous, and that “buy and hold” is the best and only way to invest.

But this conventional wisdom is patently untrue. Here are the facts based on my research and extensive real time experience.

If you want to be a successful stock market timer, you need three key elements:

1. A system that actually works.

2. Discipline to follow the system.

3. Patience to stick with the system long enough to make it work for you.

And its tough to do all three.

Heres why:

Most market timing systems dont work. Or dont work consistently enough to be valid. Some will work in trending markets but get slaughtered during flat times. Most systems dont work in all markets.

Investors lack the discipline to follow a proven system. Once an investor finds a viable program, he or she needs the discipline to follow it. Sadly, some either cant or wont do that. When they let their own judgment or intuitions interfere, they dont get the results they want or could have enjoyed by simply following the buy and sell signals they receive.

Investors lack the patience to stick with their system. Many investors are constantly in search of the Holy Grail, a program that never loses a trade. The fact is, no method will win every trade, and investors without patience will find themselves hopping from advisor to advisor with no rewards to show for their efforts.

However, there are a number of proven systems available that recognize these pitfalls and successfully time the market to massive profits year after year. Anything you hear or read to the contrary is simply not true. Wall Street has a vested interest in opposing stock market timing because it is a threat to their very existence.

Investors have two choices. They can pursue the conventional wisdom of buy and hold and hope for the best, or the modern investor can educate himself and find a timing system with which he is comfortable to protect and grow his wealth. There are a number of proven options available, but the absolute worst thing one can do is listen to the pundits

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commodity index trading